Saturday, June 12, 2010

RENEWABLE REVOLUTION & THE NEED FOR A LOW CARBON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.

At various points in the last 150 years, the global community had flirted with ideas and opportunities that could have led to the attainment of a low carbon global economy long before now. For instance, in the 1880’s experiment with renewable energy technologies resulted in the near emergence of commercial scale solar plants but before they could be integrated into the power grid, these experiments were abandoned with the advent of cheap hydrocarbon oil and 1st world war. Also during the 1980’s, just immediately after the oil peak price shocks of the 1970’s, these abandoned experiments were revived with renewed vigour and many governments in the west invested so much in the research and development of renewable energy technologies from solar to wind all the way to ocean wave energy but this adventure was short lived with the stability recorded in the international price of crude oil. Today, we are back to square one with the real threat of humanity going into extinction as a result of climate change and the recurring decimal of oil price/supply uncertainty/volatility leading to economic panic and governments the world over paying more attention to renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency mechanisms by investing heavily into research, production and large scale deployment of these green technologies. Indeed, the extant situation is different from the two previous scenarios of the 1880’s and 1980’s because of the “excess luggage” of climate change. The pertinent question that arises here is: what can we do differently this time to successfully execute the “green mandate” and usher in the renewable energy revolution? Humanity can prevent catastrophic climate change and adopt programmes, projects and policies that reduce energy usage by unleashing the full potentials of energy efficiency in concert with renewable energy resources. Target-setting has failed to achieve needed reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions because of the mindset that treats climate change as a mere pollution problem instead of being addressed as a fundamentally development challenge which it is. The indisputable fact remains that no one benefits from the mindless release of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere which, unfortunately, has no boundaries but developed and developing economies alike have everything to benefit from the transition to an energy-efficient and renewable energy powered global economy.

A strong international agreement like the opportunity that was blown up during the 15th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen last December could have accelerated this transition as well as the recognition of the potential that these resources offers could encourage governments to set aggressive milestones and benchmarks for renewable energy and energy efficiency. A bouquet of political will and the right policies can get the world on track to mitigate climate change in the near term while also meeting medium to long term demand for energy services especially by providing energy access for the world’s poorest who live in the hinterlands not serviced by the centralized power grids, boosting the global economy, bolstering energy security, and improving the natural environment both in human and ecological health terms. What is needed is a transformation of the entire global energy system and this is happening already. According to statistics collated, monitored and released by leading climate change conscious institutions and organizations, world gross domestic product (GDP) increased 156% while global energy demand (GED) rose 39%, pushing up global CO2 emissions by 38% between 1990 - 2007. Note that the emissions level was less than the energy demand itself and this has been made possible by advances in energy efficiency. There is a huge quantum of space for improvement because more than half of the energy that we generate does not provide us with useful services because of “lost in transit” syndrome that plaque centralized grid infrastructures. I’ll leave you to imagine the energy we lose in our transmission effort to get some folks in Calabar or Sokoto to enjoy the dividends of electricity generated in Kainji hydropower station in Niger state. Also according to the international Energy Agency (IEA), the projected investment in grid electricity worldwide in the next two decades can only take about 300 million people out of the energy poverty threshold of a total of 1.7 billion people who are trapped in this dark threshold. What then happens to the remaining 1.4 billion energy poor populations? This is where renewable energy comes on a ‘redemption mission” allowing you to generate electricity in-situ, off-grid fashion and allowing you deploy the resources you would have spent on transmission costs in other pressing areas like health and education. In 2007 alone, renewable energy accounted for more than 18% of total global energy supplies. Solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and other green technologies have experienced an average of double-digit annual growth rates in the last decade. The renewable energy share of additional global electricity generation leaped from 5% in 2003 to 23% in 2008 and this is minus significant hydropower generation. It is instructive to remind us that even in the face of the current global financial crisis, the cleantech industry continues to enjoy boom and is the least affected by the credit crunch of the last 12 months. Already, most Scandinavian countries and core European nations like Germany and Spain are leading the way in showing how to avoid CO2 emissions as well as meet their energy needs by leveraging on the platform presented by energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. China’s case presents a unique “the good, the bad and ugly” scenario in simultaneous fashion. The good news is that the Chinese are leaders in the green tech race, the bad news is that they occupy the unenviable leadership position on the Co2 emissions ladder and the ugly side to all of this is that they seem not to let go of the “coal addiction” due to their commitment to fire up 500 more coal fired plants in the next decade. That amounts to almost a weekly commissioning of a coal fired plant in the next 520 weeks! The Chinese needs to be delivered from this coal bondage and it seems to me that whatever they lay their hands to do, they do it with all their might but Chinese arch–rivals, God’s own country, has elected to keep us all guessing with their “difficult to gauge” disposition even as the Barack Obama administration has already announced its intention in early 2009 to join the carbon race and has already got a proposed bill that is now trapped and almost gathering dust in the US congressional system. It seems to me that the recent oil drilling approvals he sanctioned against his campaign promises is a necessary compromise aimed at appealing and appeasing the “Texas tea” clique in that country’s political system that are bent on frustrating his “green plans” for the US economy but the State of California where Arnold Schwarzenegger holds forte is in no “dilly-dally mood” when the subject matter bothers on renewable energy and clean technologies revolution. Mr. Schwarzenegger has shown that he is not only a “master of make believes” but is equally talented in the emerging and booming reality show industry where what you see is what you get! Delta state governor Emmanuel Uduaghan is in a pole position to explain this “Arnold phenomenon” better than yours sincerely and I concede that task to him because he was physically present at that epoch making “Green Governors” parley in 2009 at the instance of Arnold aimed at galvanizing and mobilizing global forces of approving authorities to come on board the “Greentech Cruise Liner”! I believe that by the time Arnold will be done, no State or region will be more “sunshine” than California.

The truth is, used in concert, renewable energy and energy efficiency can take us farther down the low carbon economy lane and this Synergy makes for improvements in energy efficiency making it easier, cheaper, and faster for renewable energy to achieve a larger quota of total energy production while simultaneously and rapidly reducing emissions associated with energy use. The money saved via efficiency can help re-finance additional efficiency and renewable energy generation capacities. Many renewable technologies are well-suited for distributed uses, generating in-situ feedstock, electricity, and heat thus reducing transmission and transportation losses so that less primary energy is required to provide the same energy services. Global energy scenarios offer wide-ranging estimates of, how much and quickly too, renewable energy sources can contribute to make this low carbon economy happen. Most scenarios paint a not too gloomy picture of a gradual paradigm shift to a global green economic platform that still envisions a major role for fossil power for most of this century but there are reports that offer alternative hypothetical scenarios for 2030 that envision a steep transformation in how the world produces and uses energy that could lead to a much more aggressive transition. Through major improvements in energy efficiency, combined with a rapid scale-up in renewable energy deployment that leans heavily on technologies that are already commercially available today, we could be halfway to a green powered world within the next couple of decades. Such a transition is essential if we must meet the demands of science to keep C02 levels below 350 parts per million (ppm) and get on track to achieve emissions reductions as required by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to prevent runaway climate change by 2050.
Around the world, such evolutions are already under way going by the pledges of some countries like Switzerland, Maldives and Norway, during the COP 15 to become carbon neutral by the next two decades and the “happening now” examples being showcased by the Danish island of Samsø, Austrian city of Güssing and Rizhao in China who all share the common denominator of major emphasis on improved energy efficiency in concert with large scale deployment of renewable energy. Special mention should be made of the German led consortium committed to the Desertec Initiative which seeks powering Europe from the electricity to be generated in and around the Sahara desert and transmitted back to Europe via North Africa. The French are also developing an initiative similar in concept and design to the Desertec project and these are all gigantic renewable energy projects that would redefine our approach to the generation of renewable electricity and usher us into a truly decarbonized global economy.


For the world to avoid an uncertain, insecure economic future as well as catastrophic climate change, this transition must be accelerated rapidly with success stories and strategies shared across geographical boundaries. This surely will require replacing a centralized, complex, entrenched and inherited fossil energy system with a more liberal, distributed and democratized energy efficient, renewable system and this cannot happen without a huge dose of political will and committed strong, sustained green policies. More than anything else, policy choices have been more critical than renewable resource potential in driving the energy transformational examples we are already witnessing. Aggressive near- and long-term policies/regulations are needed to support and accelerate the transition to an efficient and renewable energy system, while eliminating barriers that favor existing fossil fuel mentality. A good starting point is to put a price on carbon that increases over time. This same carbon has the potential to become the world's biggest traded commodity in the next couple of decades. In fact the big carbon boom lurks around the corner and will hit us sooner than we imagine. The New York Times recently ran an article claiming that "carbon will be the world's biggest commodity market” the value of which doubled up to $64bn in 2007 from $32bn in 2006. As momentum continues to gather increasingly in favour of an energy efficient world, we are potentially sitting on top of a sky rocketing Trillion Dollar industry. We must develop incentives and strategies for phasing out existing, inefficient carbon-emitting infrastructures as well as decommissioning old coal-fired power plants and discouraging new ones. In terms of costs, a transition away from fossil fuel that is consistent with keeping CO2 emissions below 2 degrees centigrade below pre-industrial revolution levels, will take the equivalent of 3% of world GDP by 2030 according to a release by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007.

The transition to a highly efficient economy that utilizes renewable energy is essential for developed and developing countries alike and represents the way that degradation of Earth’s climate system can be halted as well as the only real option for raising billions of people out of the poverty trap. The challenge is to devise a transition strategy that improves the lives of all citizens by providing them with essential energy services that do not disrupt the climate system, degrade the environment, or create conflict over resources. The world is now in the early stages of a renewable energy revolution that over the next few decades could be as positively impactful and momentous as the emergence of oil and electricity-based economies a century ago. Double-digit market growth, annual capital flows of more than $100 billion, sharp declines in technology costs, and rapid progress in the sophistication and willingness of political authorities to effectively drive government policies in favour of a promising new low carbon energy era. African countries and developing economies like Nigeria have a lot to benefit from this impending, unavoidable reality.


Stanley Ijeoma is an Abuja based Enviropreneur & CEO, Schrodinger Limited.

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